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NZD CHF BUY (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – SWISS FRANC) for OANDA:NZDCHF by thunderpips

NZD CHF BUY (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – SWISS FRANC)

NZD/CHF OANDA:NZDCHF



NZD

Fundamental bias: Bullish

1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.

As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market’s improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safe-havens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term .

2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ

The RBNZ delivered a very hawkish tils during their July policy meeting, by announcing that they will be completely stopping purchases under their LSAP program from the 23rd of July. Going into the meeting markets were already expecting the bank to cut rates as soon as November, which meant that tapering QE was a necessary prerequisite for the bank to signal that they are indeed planning to hike rates this year. However, after the hawkish tilt, and especially after the solid beat in Q2 CPI on Friday, OIS markets are now pricing in close to a 90% chance of a hike as soon as next month’s meeting. Even though the meeting and beat in CPI is of course positive and suggests tighter policy, the bank called July’s decision a ‘least regrets’ policy and added that ‘some monetary stimulus remains necessary’ to reach their goals. This does not sound like a bank that is ready to hike next month, and potentially hike two or three times more as rates markets currently suggests. Thus, there is a chance that markets might have been a bit too aggressive in their expectations for rates this year. However, whether that is the case or not, the tilt from the bank and the beat in CPI is expected to be a supportive factor for the NZD going into the August policy meeting.

3. The country’s economic and health developments

With a few solid economic beats in the bag (Q1 GDP, NZIER Survey, Q2 CPI ) we have a very quiet week coming up for the NZD on the data front. Which means overall focus should still be fixated on the RBNZ’s meeting as well as the solid beat in CPI on Friday. With the price action we saw in risk assets at the latter part of last week we do want to keep the overall risk sentiment of the market in mind as more risk off tones are still expected to negatively impact the NZD despite the overall bullish bias.

CHF

Fundamental bias: Bearish

1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.

As a safe-haven currency, the market’s risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions.

The market’s overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish .

Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind.

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